Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Excelsior
Team profile

Excelsior Prediction

Per-game numbers from 37 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.5
a game
14.7 faced
On target
4.4
a game
5.4 faced
Goals
1.4 – 1.6
scored – conceded
a game, 37 matches
Next match
18%
Excelsior win chance
at Nijmegen · Sat 22 Aug 18:00

Excelsior prediction: for Excelsior's next match — Nijmegen vs Excelsior on Saturday 22 Aug, 18:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Nijmegen are favoured (57%).

Excelsior sit close to the Eredivisie average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.56 expected goals a game and conceding 1.64. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.56 expected. Next up is a trip to NEC Nijmegen, where the model has them as underdogs at 18%.

Excelsior in numbers

37 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.4
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
Home 1.2Away 1.6
4.2
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 4.0Away 4.4
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 14.7
Home 12.4Away 12.6
4.4
On target · per game
faced 5.4
Home 4.2Away 4.6
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-2
vs PSV
1-7
07 Aug
4-0
@ Cambuur
8-5
07 Aug
4-0
@ SC Cambuur
8-5
17 May
3-2
@ Sparta Rotterdam
2-5
10 May
1-1
vs Volendam
5-0
02 May
3-2
@ Groningen
8-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Nijmegen · Saturday 22 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Win
18%
Excelsior
Draw
25%
Loss
57%
Nijmegen
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Excelsior compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.56
Below average
Goals against
1.64
Leakier than most
Record
2W 2D 1L
5 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.56
Conceded1.64

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.63 scored, 1.55 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Excelsior fixtures (5/5).

How Bawler has done on Excelsior

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 5, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%5/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sat 15 Augvs PSV Eindhoven
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 07 Aug@ SC Cambuur
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Sparta Rotterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs FC Volendam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 20 Mar@ Heracles
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INAymen SlitiLWfrom FeyenoordLoan
INValentin SulzbacherDMfrom SalzburgUndisclosed
INKasey BosLBfrom Mainz 05Loan
INJan PlugCBfrom FeyenoordLoan
INMarlon van de WeteringRBfrom FC EindhovenUndisclosed
INCelton BiaiGKfrom FC DordrechtFree transfer
INMario Domínguezfrom ValenciaLoan
INYaqub FineySTfrom GIF Sundsvall€185k
OUTDerensili Sanches FernandesRWto Huddersfield Town€1m
OUTJerolldino BergraafSTto AZ AlkmaarLoan
OUTArthur ZagréLBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTEmil HanssonLWto Free agentFree transfer
OUTCalvin RaatsieGKto FC DordrechtFree transfer
OUTAdam CarlénDMto Artis BrnoUndisclosed
OUTIlias BronkhorstRBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTHamdi AkujobiRBto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Excelsior and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly