> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 09 May, 17:00 UTC
Eyupspor vs Caykur Rizespor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
33.9% home28.5% draw37.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EyupsporstepCaykur Rizespor
1.45Base xG · rolling 26-match1.73
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.57Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.66
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
4
7
5
3
1
1
6
10
9
5
2
1
2
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8
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4
2
1
3
3
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4
2
1
4
1
2
1
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Eyupspor 4–0 Caykur Rizespor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+