FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Eyupspor 4–0 Caykur RizesporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Eyupspor at 34%, draw at 28%, Caykur Rizespor at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-0. The model's headline call was Caykur Rizespor to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eyupspor win
34%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Rizespor win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.66
Total 3.23
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 42%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.68x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✓