> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 16 May, 14:00 UTC
Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Relegation-threatened Fatih Karagümrük faces defensive-minded Alanyaspor in near-parity xG (1.24-1.19), making draw+away coverage (X2 at 68%) the value play.
Win probability
34.2% home33.8% draw32.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Fatih KaragümrükstepAlanyaspor
1.15Base xG · rolling 26-match1.24
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.24Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.19
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
10
6
2
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
7
8
5
2
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 Alanyaspor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+