FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Fatih Karagümrük 2–1 AlanyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fatih Karagümrük at 34%, draw at 34%, Alanyaspor at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Fatih Karagümrük.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Karagümrük win
34%
Actual ✓
Draw
34%
Alanyaspor win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.24 – 1.19
Total 2.44
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 68%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.97x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- X2✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Relegation-threatened Fatih Karagümrük faces defensive-minded Alanyaspor in near-parity xG (1.24-1.19), making draw+away coverage (X2 at 68%) the value play."