> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Saturday 09 May, 13:30 UTC
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
40.2% home26.6% draw33.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FC AugsburgstepBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.74Base xG · rolling 26-match1.76
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.87Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.70
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
3
5
4
2
1
1
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9
8
4
2
1
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5
8
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4
2
1
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3
5
4
3
1
4
1
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2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 SOT + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + X2
Model 31.4% · @ 3.18x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Augsburg 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+