FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
FC Augsburg 3–1 Borussia MönchengladbachMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Augsburg at 40%, draw at 27%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 33%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Augsburg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Augsburg win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Mönchengladbach win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.87 – 1.70
Total 3.57
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 43%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.18x
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- X2✗