FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
FC Groningen 2–1 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Groningen at 44%, draw at 25%, NEC Nijmegen at 31%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Groningen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Groningen win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Nijmegen win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.12 – 1.76
Total 3.88
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 49%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.43x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✓