> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 10 May, 14:45 UTC
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
45.3% home25.6% draw29.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Feyenoord RotterdamstepAZ Alkmaar
1.91Base xG · rolling 26-match1.71
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.06Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.64
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 10.5 Corners + 1X
Model 33.0% · @ 3.03x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
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Feyenoord Rotterdam 1–1 AZ Alkmaar
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+