Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / AZ Alkmaar
Team profile

AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Per-game numbers from 50 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.0
a game
11.6 faced
On target
5.8
a game
4.1 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 50 matches
Next match
29%
AZ Alkmaar win chance
at Sittard · Sat 22 Aug 14:30

AZ Alkmaar prediction: for AZ Alkmaar's next match — Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar on Saturday 22 Aug, 14:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Sittard are favoured (42%).

AZ Alkmaar sit close to the Eredivisie average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.53 expected goals a game and conceding 1.50. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.00 a game against 1.53 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Fortuna Sittard, where the model has them as underdogs at 29%.

AZ Alkmaar in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 2.2Away 1.4
6.0
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 6.6Away 5.4
16.0
Shots · per game
faced 11.6
Home 16.7Away 15.2
5.8
On target · per game
faced 4.1
Home 6.2Away 5.5
Last 6 games
15 Aug
4-1
@ Utrecht
9-3
08 Aug
2-0
vs Den Haag
9-7
08 Aug
2-0
vs ADO Den Haag
9-7
02 Aug
4-0
@ PSV
3-6
17 May
3-3
vs NAC Breda
7-6
10 May
1-1
@ Feyenoord
3-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Sittard · Saturday 22 Aug, 14:30 UTC

Win
29%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw
29%
Loss
42%
Sittard
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How AZ Alkmaar compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.53
Below average
Goals against
1.50
Tighter than most
Record
3W 3D 2L
8 settled
Real goals
2.0 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.53
Conceded1.50

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.63 scored, 1.55 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on AZ Alkmaar fixtures (7/7).

How Bawler has done on AZ Alkmaar

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%7/7

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Sat 15 Aug@ FC Utrecht
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Augvs ADO Den Haag
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs NAC Breda
High confidence: 1X
Sun 10 May@ Feyenoord Rotterdam
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 16 Aprvs Shakhtar Donetsk
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Apr@ Shakhtar Donetsk
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ Groningen
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Mar@ Sparta Prague
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INCalvin StengsRWfrom Free agentFree transfer
INAndrea NataliCBfrom Bayer Leverkusen€2m
INJari De BusserGKfrom Go Ahead EaglesUndisclosed
INSam De GrandLBfrom LommelUndisclosed
INJerolldino BergraafSTfrom ExcelsiorLoan
INAbdelnor SoualhiaCBfrom Le PuyFree transfer
OUTSven MijnansCMto PSV Eindhoven€13m
OUTAlexandre PenetraCBto Çorum FKLoan
OUTKristijan BelicDMto Maccabi Tel Aviv€1.3m
OUTZico BuurmeesterDMto LeganesFree transfer
OUTKasper BoogaardDMto Willem IILoan
OUTLequincio ZeefuikSTto Fortuna SittardLoan
OUTDaniël DeenGKto Free agentFree transfer
OUTAnthony SmitsRWto Grazer AKFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on AZ Alkmaar and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly