FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Fortuna Sittard 3–2 PEC ZwolleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fortuna Sittard at 43%, draw at 26%, PEC Zwolle at 31%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Fortuna Sittard.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sittard win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Zwolle win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.97 – 1.64
Total 3.61
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 44%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.38x
- Over 8.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- 1X✓