> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 09 May, 17:00 UTC
Galatasaray vs Antalyaspor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
64.1% home22.3% draw13.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GalatasaraystepAntalyaspor
2.19Base xG · rolling 26-match1.08
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.36Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
3
3
2
1
1
8
8
4
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
7
8
4
1
4
4
4
2
1
5
2
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Galatasaray 4–2 Antalyaspor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+