FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Galatasaray 4–2 AntalyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Galatasaray at 64%, draw at 22%, Antalyaspor at 14%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Galatasaray.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galatasaray win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Antalyaspor win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.36 – 1.04
Total 3.41
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.45x
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Home Win✓