> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 16 May, 17:00 UTC
Gaziantep FK vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Istanbul Basaksehir's Europa League motivation plus balanced xG (1.31) overcomes Gaziantep's mid-table apathy, making X2 a 67% banker despite even win probabilities.
Win probability
35.5% home31.9% draw32.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Gaziantep FKstepIstanbul Basaksehir
1.27Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.38Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.31
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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0
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
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6
2
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3
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3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Gaziantep FK 1–2 Istanbul Basaksehir
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+