FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 16 May 2026
Gaziantep FK 1–2 Istanbul BasaksehirMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 16 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Gaziantep FK at 36%, draw at 32%, Istanbul Basaksehir at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Gaziantep FK to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FK win
36%
Draw
32%
Basaksehir win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.38 – 1.31
Total 2.68
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.17x
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- X2✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Istanbul Basaksehir's Europa League motivation plus balanced xG (1.31) overcomes Gaziantep's mid-table apathy, making X2 a 67% banker despite even win probabilities."