> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Germany vs Curacao
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% because Germany's 1.84 xG dominance versus Curacao's 0.99 creates the attacking asymmetry needed for multiple tallies.
Win probability
54.3% home27.9% draw17.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GermanystepCuracao
1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.03
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.84Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.99
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Germany 7–1 Curacao
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+