> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Girona vs Elche
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Elche's relegation desperation should trigger attacking intent despite weak underlying metrics, making BTTS No attractive at 54% when Girona's mid-table apathy limits their clinical edge.
Win probability
38.1% home31.5% draw30.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GironastepElche
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.33
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.28
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
9
12
8
3
1
2
7
9
6
2
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Girona 1–1 Elche
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+