> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Saturday 09 May, 17:00 UTC
Goztepe vs Gaziantep FK
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
48.2% home27.4% draw24.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GoztepestepGaziantep FK
1.76Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.90Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.32
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
2
1
1
8
10
7
3
1
2
7
10
6
3
1
3
5
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 32.6% · @ 3.07x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Goztepe 2–1 Gaziantep FK
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+