FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Goztepe 2–1 Gaziantep FKMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Goztepe at 48%, draw at 27%, Gaziantep FK at 24%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Goztepe.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Goztepe win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
FK win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 1.32
Total 3.22
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.07x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓