FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Heracles Almelo 1–2 FC GroningenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Heracles Almelo at 28%, draw at 28%, FC Groningen at 43%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Groningen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Almelo win
28%
Draw
28%
Groningen win
43%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.41 – 1.76
Total 3.17
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.25x
- Over 2.5 Goals✓
- Over 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
> What we said pre-match
"Groningen's 43% win probability with superior xG (1.76) makes away victory at 54% value significantly outweigh the banker X2 draw at 88%."