> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
Heracles Almelo vs FC Groningen
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Groningen's 43% win probability with superior xG (1.76) makes away victory at 54% value significantly outweigh the banker X2 draw at 88%.
Win probability
28.4% home28.4% draw43.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Heracles AlmelostepFC Groningen
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.83
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.41Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.76
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Heracles Almelo 1–2 FC Groningen
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+