> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 17 May, 00:30 UTC
Houston Dynamo FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Vancouver's 1.72 xG advantage and 50% win probability make Away Win the model's best value despite the X2 banker, though BTTS Yes at 54% captures the low-scoring, competitive nature efficiently.
Win probability
20.7% home29.5% draw49.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Houston Dynamo FCstepVancouver Whitecaps
0.97Base xG · rolling 26-match1.78
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.72
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
11
9
5
2
1
1
7
11
10
6
2
1
2
3
6
5
3
1
3
1
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Houston Dynamo FC 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+