Bawler / USA: MLS / Vancouver Whitecaps
Team profile

Vancouver Whitecaps Prediction

Per-game numbers from 54 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
15.0
a game
9.9 faced
On target
5.4
a game
3.6 faced
Goals
1.8 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 54 matches
Next match
42%
Vancouver Whitecaps win chance
at Seattle Sounders · Mon 17 Aug 02:30

Vancouver Whitecaps prediction: for Vancouver Whitecaps's next match — Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver Whitecaps on Monday 17 Aug, 02:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Vancouver Whitecaps win looks most likely (42%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Vancouver Whitecaps are the most complete profile in this data: creating 1.92 expected goals a game while giving up just 1.16. Next up is a trip to Seattle Sounders FC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 42%.

Vancouver Whitecaps in numbers

54 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.8
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 2.2Away 1.5
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 4.2
Home 6.8Away 4.6
15.0
Shots · per game
faced 9.9
Home 17.8Away 12.7
5.4
On target · per game
faced 3.6
Home 6.2Away 4.8
Last 6 games
12 Aug
1-2
@ Tigres UANL
5-2
08 Aug
1-3
vs Juarez
8-1
05 Aug
0-1
vs Atlante
8-2
02 Aug
1-1
vs LAFC
10-1
26 Jul
0-0
@ Minnesota United
2-5
22 Jul
3-4
@ Cincinnati
3-1

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Seattle Sounders · Monday 17 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Win
42%
This team
Draw
30%
Loss
27%
Opponent
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 76%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Vancouver Whitecaps compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.92
Above average
Goals against
1.16
Tighter than most
Record
4W 3D 4L
11 settled
Real goals
1.7 – 1.5
For / against, per match
Scored1.92
Conceded1.16

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.92 xG per match · +0.45 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.16 xG per match · -0.29 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 71% of the time on Vancouver Whitecaps fixtures (5/7).
Squad availability · Vancouver Whitecaps vs Seattle Sounders
Fetching squad availability…

Injuries, suspensions and doubts for both squads, from FotMob. Updates as kickoff nears.

How Bawler has done on Vancouver Whitecaps

64%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 11
Result71%5/7
Goals (Over/Under)50%2/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 20 Augvs Houston Dynamo FC
Sun 23 Augvs FC Dallas

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 26 Jul@ Minnesota United FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ FC Cincinnati
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ San Diego FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Houston Dynamo FC
High confidence: X2
Thu 14 May@ FC Dallas
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: 1X
Sun 03 May@ LA Galaxy
High confidence: X2
Sat 18 Aprvs Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Aprvs Portland Timbers
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Marvs San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

OUTSebastian BerhalterDMto Middlesbrough€1.8m
OUTJoedrick PupeLBto St.TruidenUndisclosed
OUTNelson PierreSTto FC TulsaLoan
OUTAdrián PelayoCBto Phoenix Rising FCFree transfer
OUTMax AnchorGKto Seattle Sounders FCFree transfer
OUTSebastian SchonlauCBto Holstein KielUndisclosed
OUTMark O'NeillCBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTJackson CastroCMto Forward Madison FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Vancouver Whitecaps and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly