> MATCH.PREDICT()·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 02 May, 11:30 UTC
Hull vs Norwich
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
30.7% home26.8% draw42.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HullstepNorwich
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.79
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.73
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 17.1% · @ 5.86x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hull 2–1 Norwich
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+