FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 02 May 2026

Hull 21 NorwichMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026

Hull
21
Hull win
Norwich
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Hull at 31%, draw at 27%, Norwich at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Norwich to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Hull win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Norwich win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.441.73
Total 3.17
Actual
21
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 42%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 5.86x
  • X2
  • Over 9.5 Corners
  • Over 7.5 SOT
  • Over 2.5 Goals

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