> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 09 Jun, 13:00 UTC
Indonesia vs Mozambique
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Mozambique's 39% win probability and 1.18 xG edge justifies backing X2 at 64%, as the visitor has genuine attacking threat despite Indonesia's home advantage.
Win probability
24.9% home36.4% draw38.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
IndonesiastepMozambique
0.88Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.90Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12
15
9
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
5
6
4
1
3
2
2
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Indonesia 1–0 Mozambique
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+