Indonesia 1–0 MozambiqueMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 09 June 2026

1–0

Indonesia win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Indonesia at 25%, draw at 36%, Mozambique at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Mozambique to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Indonesia win

25%

Actual ✓

Draw

36%

Mozambique win

39%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

0.90 – 1.18

Total 2.09

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-1.1 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Pre-match: 64%

✗ Lost

Value

Pre-match: 54%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Home Win

Pre-match: 26%

✓ Won

Bawl OutMixed@ 3.01x

Under 10.5 Corners–
X2✗
Over 1.5 Goals✗

> What we said pre-match

"Mozambique's 39% win probability and 1.18 xG edge justifies backing X2 at 64%, as the visitor has genuine attacking threat despite Indonesia's home advantage."

> More from Bawler