> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 02 May, 23:15 UTC
Inter Miami CF vs Orlando City SC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
77.9% home12.7% draw9.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Inter Miami CFstepOrlando City SC
3.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.41
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
3.69Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.36
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Inter Miami CF 3–4 Orlando City SC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+