FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Inter Miami CF 3–4 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 78%, draw at 13%, Orlando City SC at 9%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-4. The model's headline call was Inter Miami CF to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
78%
Draw
13%
SC win
9%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.69 – 1.36
Total 5.05
Actual
3 – 4
Total 7 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 96%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
X2
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won