> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 13:00 UTC
Internazionale vs Hellas Verona
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Inter's 1.73 xG advantage against desperate Verona creates decisive pressure that generates 1X at 78% despite low-scoring model prediction.
Win probability
55.4% home29.0% draw15.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
InternazionalestepHellas Verona
1.60Base xG · rolling 26-match0.86
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.73Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.83
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
6
3
1
1
13
11
5
1
2
12
10
4
1
3
7
6
2
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Internazionale 1–1 Hellas Verona
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+