Bawler / ITALY: Serie A / Inter Milan
Team profile

Inter Milan Prediction

Per-game numbers from 48 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
17.3
a game
9.3 faced
On target
5.9
a game
3.2 faced
Goals
2.2 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 48 matches
Next match
59%
Inter Milan win chance
vs Monza · Sat 22 Aug 16:30

Inter Milan prediction: for Inter Milan's next match — Inter Milan vs Monza on Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Inter Milan win looks most likely (59%).

Inter Milan are the most complete profile in this data: creating 1.69 expected goals a game while giving up just 1.02. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.50 a game against 1.69 expected. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is Monza, where the model makes them clear favourites at 59%.

Inter Milan in numbers

48 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.2
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 2.4Away 2.0
6.3
Corners · per game
give up 3.0
Home 7.5Away 5.1
17.3
Shots · per game
faced 9.3
Home 18.6Away 16.0
5.9
On target · per game
faced 3.2
Home 6.6Away 5.2
Last 6 games
23 May
3-3
@ Bologna
4-1
17 May
1-1
vs Verona
10-2
09 May
3-0
@ Lazio
1-5
03 May
2-0
vs Parma
8-3
26 Apr
2-2
@ Torino
5-5
17 Apr
3-0
vs Cagliari
4-9

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Monza · Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Win
59%
Inter Milan
Draw
26%
Loss
15%
Monza
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Inter Milan compare with the ITALY: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
1.69
Above average
Goals against
1.02
Tighter than most
Record
4W 4D 0L
8 settled
Real goals
2.5 – 1.1
For / against, per match
Scored1.69
Conceded1.02

The grey line on each bar is the ITALY: Serie A average (1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.69 xG per match · +0.29 above the ITALY: Serie A average of 1.40.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.02 xG per match · -0.38 vs league average of 1.40.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Inter Milan fixtures (6/6).

How Bawler has done on Inter Milan

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 8, well above the ~65% baseline
Result100%6/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Sat 23 May@ Bologna
High confidence: X2
Sun 17 Mayvs Hellas Verona
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 May@ Lazio
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Parma
High confidence: 1X
Sun 26 Apr@ Torino
High confidence: Torino or Draw (Double Chance)
Fri 17 Aprvs Cagliari
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Aprvs AS Roma
High confidence: 1X
Sun 22 Mar@ Fiorentina
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INDjed SpenceLBfrom Tottenham Hotspur€35m
INAleksandar StankovicDMfrom Club Brugge€23m
INManuel AkanjiCBfrom Manchester City€15m
INJohn StonesCBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INIvan ProvedelGKfrom Lazio€3m
INAlessandro MilaniLBfrom LazioUndisclosed
OUTDenzel DumfriesRMto Real Madrid€20m
OUTEbenezer AkinsanmiroCMto MonzaLoan
OUTDavide FrattesiCMto LazioLoan
OUTSebastiano EspositoSTto Cagliari€4m
OUTFranco CarboniLMto Parma€2.5m
OUTStefan de VrijCBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTGiacomo De PieriAMto AscoliLoan
OUTYann SommerGKto Free agentUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Inter Milan and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly