> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Thursday 04 Jun, 16:30 UTC
Iran vs Mali
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 72% because Iran's 0.58 xG edge and 1.64 expected goals create the offensive volume needed to break through Mali's 1.06 xG foundation.
Win probability
47.6% home30.4% draw22.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
IranstepMali
1.59Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.64Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.06
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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7
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11
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6
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9
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1
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6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Iran 2–0 Mali
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+