> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Wednesday 10 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Iraq vs Venezuela
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Iraq's home advantage and 39% win probability edge Venezuela's 26% in a low-scoring fixture (2.25 xG total), making 1X at 79% the banker play.
Win probability
38.5% home35.0% draw26.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
IraqstepVenezuela
1.22Base xG · rolling 26-match1.01
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.00
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
11
5
2
1
13
13
7
2
1
2
8
8
4
1
3
3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Iraq 0–2 Venezuela
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+