> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Saturday 06 Jun, 21:00 UTC
Jamaica vs South Africa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Draw or South Africa on X2 makes sense when Jamaica's 34% win probability leaves the field evenly matched at just 1.16 xG apiece.
Win probability
33.9% home35.3% draw30.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
JamaicastepSouth Africa
1.13Base xG · rolling 26-match1.11
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.16Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.10
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Jamaica 0–1 South Africa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+