FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Jamaica 01 South AfricaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 06 June 2026

Jamaica
01
South Africa win
South Africa
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Jamaica at 34%, draw at 35%, South Africa at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was a draw.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Jamaica win
34%
Draw
35%
Africa win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.161.10
Total 2.26
Actual
01
Total 1 (-1.3 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.23x
  • X2
  • Over 1.5 Goals
  • Over 8.5 Corners
> What we said pre-match
"Draw or South Africa on X2 makes sense when Jamaica's 34% win probability leaves the field evenly matched at just 1.16 xG apiece."

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