> MATCH.PREDICT()·Turkey: Süper Lig·Sunday 17 May, 14:00 UTC
Kayserispor vs Konyaspor
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Kayserispor's relegation desperation drives the X2 play despite balanced xG, as mid-table Konyaspor's defensive solidity limits home pressure to 1.40 expected goals.
Win probability
35.9% home31.7% draw32.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KayserisporstepKonyaspor
1.30Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.32
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
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0
7
9
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1
1
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12
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4
1
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1
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1
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1
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Kayserispor 2–1 Konyaspor
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+