FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Kayserispor 2–1 KonyasporMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Kayserispor at 36%, draw at 32%, Konyaspor at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Kayserispor.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kayserispor win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
32%
Konyaspor win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.32
Total 2.72
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.66x
- X2✗
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Kayserispor's relegation desperation drives the X2 play despite balanced xG, as mid-table Konyaspor's defensive solidity limits home pressure to 1.40 expected goals."