FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Konyaspor 0–3 FenerbahceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Konyaspor at 33%, draw at 29%, Fenerbahce at 38%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Fenerbahce.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Konyaspor win
33%
Draw
29%
Fenerbahce win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.67
Total 3.21
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 43%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.25x
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- X2✓