Bawler / TURKEY: Super Lig / Fenerbahce
Team profile

Fenerbahce Prediction

Per-game numbers from 47 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
16.6
a game
10.9 faced
On target
6.3
a game
3.4 faced
Goals
2.0 – 1.1
scored – conceded
a game, 47 matches
Next match
49%
Fenerbahce win chance
vs Lyon · Tue 18 Aug 19:00

Fenerbahce prediction: for Fenerbahce's next match — Fenerbahce vs Lyon on Tuesday 18 Aug, 19:00 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Fenerbahce win looks most likely (49%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Fenerbahce sit close to the Super Lig average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.53 expected goals a game and conceding 1.14. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is Lyon, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 49%.

Fenerbahce in numbers

47 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
2.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.1
Home 2.0Away 2.0
6.5
Corners · per game
give up 4.5
Home 6.7Away 6.3
16.6
Shots · per game
faced 10.9
Home 18.5Away 14.8
6.3
On target · per game
faced 3.4
Home 6.8Away 5.8
Last 6 games
15 Aug
1-2
@ Genclerbirligi
12-1
11 Aug
1-0
@ SK Sturm Graz
6-7
05 Aug
2-0
vs SK Sturm Graz
4-2
17 May
3-3
vs Eyupspor
6-0
09 May
3-0
@ Konyaspor
2-6
02 May
3-1
vs Basaksehir
10-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Lyon · Tuesday 18 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Win
49%
Fenerbahce
Draw
30%
Loss
21%
Lyon
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 76%
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Fenerbahce compare with the TURKEY: Super Lig average, per match.

Goals for
1.53
Above average
Goals against
1.14
Tighter than most
Record
5W 2D 2L
9 settled
Real goals
1.8 – 1.2
For / against, per match
Scored1.53
Conceded1.14

The grey line on each bar is the TURKEY: Super Lig average (1.31 scored, 1.36 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.53 xG per match · +0.22 above the TURKEY: Super Lig average of 1.31.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.14 xG per match · -0.22 vs league average of 1.36.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 83% of the time on Fenerbahce fixtures (5/6).

How Bawler has done on Fenerbahce

89%
of high-confidence calls correct — 8 of 9, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)83%5/6
Result100%2/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sat 22 Augvs Konyaspor
Wed 26 Aug@ Lyon

Recent matches (last 9)

Sat 15 Aug@ Genclerbirligi
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Tue 11 Aug@ SK Sturm Graz
High confidence: Under 2.5 Goals
Wed 05 Augvs SK Sturm Graz
High confidence: Under 2.5 Goals
Sun 17 Mayvs Eyupspor
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 May@ Konyaspor
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 02 Mayvs Basaksehir
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Galatasaray
High confidence: Galatasaray or Draw (Double Chance)
Fri 17 Aprvs Rizespor
High confidence: 1X
Sun 05 Aprvs Besiktas
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMason GreenwoodRWfrom Marseille€40m
INSidiki CherifSTfrom Angers€18m
INVedat MuriqiSTfrom Mallorca€16m
INNathan AkéCBfrom Manchester CityUndisclosed
INRomelu LukakuSTfrom Napoli€6m
OUTFredDMto Atletico MG€2m
OUTYigit FidanCBto MuglasporLoan
OUTIrfan EgribayatGKto GençlerbirliğiUndisclosed
OUTEmre MorAMto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTEngin Can Bitergeto AdanasporUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Fenerbahce and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly