FT · BELGIUM: Jupiler Pro League - Championship Group · Sunday, 26 April 2026
KV Mechelen 1–4 St. TruidenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had KV Mechelen at 47%, draw at 25%, St. Truiden at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-4. The model's headline call was KV Mechelen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Mechelen win
47%
Draw
25%
Truiden win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.15
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
KV Mechelen or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost