> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Tuesday 19 May, 18:30 UTC
KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Westerlo's superior xG edge (2.25 vs 1.50) and high Over 1.5 Goals probability (84%) makes the home win the most backed play despite balanced win odds.
Win probability
52.0% home24.3% draw23.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KVC WesterlostepStandard Liege
2.08Base xG · rolling 26-match1.56
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.25Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.50
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
2
4
3
1
1
5
8
6
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
7
5
3
1
4
2
4
3
1
1
5
1
2
1
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 22.5 Shots + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 32.4% · @ 3.09x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
KVC Westerlo 1–2 Standard Liege
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+