> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 24 May, 02:30 UTC
LA Galaxy vs Houston Dynamo FC
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
LA Galaxy's 0.35 xG advantage combined with Houston's defensive vulnerability makes Over 1.5 Goals the most reliable play at 74% probability.
Win probability
42.3% home31.2% draw26.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LA GalaxystepHouston Dynamo FC
1.42Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.53Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
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4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
LA Galaxy 1–1 Houston Dynamo FC
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+