Bawler / USA: MLS / LA Galaxy
Team profile

LA Galaxy Prediction

Per-game numbers from 46 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.6
a game
13.3 faced
On target
4.7
a game
4.7 faced
Goals
1.3 – 1.8
scored – conceded
a game, 46 matches
Next match
39%
LA Galaxy win chance
vs San Jose Earthquakes · Thu 20 Aug 02:30

LA Galaxy prediction: for LA Galaxy's next match — LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes on Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a LA Galaxy win looks most likely (39%).

LA Galaxy sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.44 expected goals a game and conceding 1.34. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.08 goals a game against 1.44 expected. They have struggled lately, losing 2 of their last 5. Next up is San Jose Earthquakes, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 39%.

LA Galaxy in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.8
Home 1.4Away 1.1
5.5
Corners · per game
give up 4.6
Home 6.0Away 5.0
12.6
Shots · per game
faced 13.3
Home 13.7Away 11.6
4.7
On target · per game
faced 4.7
Home 5.5Away 3.9
Last 6 games
16 Aug
0-1
@ Houston Dynamo
3-4
02 Aug
0-0
vs Dallas
6-6
26 Jul
1-1
@ San Jose Earthquakes
-
23 Jul
1-3
vs St. Louis CITY
-
24 May
1-1
vs Houston Dynamo
8-2
17 May
2-0
@ Seattle Sounders
1-5

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs San Jose Earthquakes · Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Win
39%
LA Galaxy
Draw
26%
Loss
35%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How LA Galaxy compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.44
Below average
Goals against
1.34
Tighter than most
Record
3W 5D 4L
12 settled
Real goals
1.1 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.44
Conceded1.34

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 71% of the time on LA Galaxy fixtures (5/7).
Tough market: Result
LA Galaxy matches give the model a harder read here — 2/5 (40%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

How Bawler has done on LA Galaxy

58%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 12
Goals (Over/Under)71%5/7
Result40%2/5

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Sun 23 Aug@ CF Montréal

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Aug@ Houston Dynamo FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Augvs FC Dallas
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ San Jose Earthquakes
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Julvs St. Louis CITY SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 Mayvs Houston Dynamo FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Seattle Sounders FC
High confidence: 1X
Thu 14 May@ Sporting Kansas City
High confidence: X2
Sun 10 May@ Atlanta United FC
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs Vancouver Whitecaps
High confidence: X2
Mon 27 Aprvs Real Salt Lake
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INHirving LozanoLWfrom San Diego FCLoan
INKyogo FuruhashiSTfrom Birmingham City€1.2m
INSergi RobertoDMfrom Free agentFree transfer
INRobert TaylorRWfrom MLS PoolFree transfer
OUTGabriel PecRWto Cruzeiro€11m
OUTEdwin CerrilloDMto CF AmericaUndisclosed
OUTMauricio CuevasRBto Santos LagunaUndisclosed
OUTAscel EssengueCBto Free agentLoan
OUTTucker LepleyRWto Oakland RootsLoan
OUTChristian RamirezSTto MLS PoolFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on LA Galaxy and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly