FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Lazio 0–3 InternazionaleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lazio at 27%, draw at 28%, Internazionale at 45%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Internazionale.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lazio win
27%
Draw
28%
Internazionale win
45%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.36 – 1.79
Total 3.16
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.10x
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓