FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 26 April 2026
Le Havre 4–4 MetzMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 April 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Le Havre at 45%, draw at 26%, Metz at 29%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-4. The model's headline call was Le Havre to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Havre win
45%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Metz win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.10
Total 2.55
Actual
4 – 4
Total 8 (+5.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 5.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Le Havre or Draw (Double Chance)
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won