> MATCH.PREDICT()·Germany: Bundesliga·Sunday 10 May, 17:30 UTC
Mainz vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.5% home25.8% draw27.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Mainzstep1. FC Union Berlin
1.90Base xG · rolling 26-match1.63
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.05Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.57
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 10.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 SOT + 1X
Model 28.1% · @ 3.56x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Mainz 1–3 1. FC Union Berlin
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+