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Bawler / EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs / Mainz

Mainz

EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs

Mainz operate as a balanced attacking unit with a 1.59 xG output offset by defensive vulnerability at 1.56 xG conceded, reflecting a team that creates chances but remains susceptible in transition. Recent form has stabilized after a mid-sequence dip, posting four wins across their last six settled fixtures with a W-L-L-W-W pattern suggesting improved consistency. With no upcoming fixtures in the current window, the model awaits their next Conference League play-off assignment. Bawler's banker selections on Mainz have maintained a perfect 100% strike rate across all tracked matches.

> Attack vs Defence (xG per match)
Goals scored (xG)1.59+0.01 vs league
Goals conceded (xG)1.56+0.22 vs league
◇ = EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average. Lower xG conceded is better.

How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Mainz were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Mainz are above average there.

> xG performance · last 6 matches
01234vs Sigma Olomouc: actual 2, xG 1.70vs Eintracht Frankfurt: actual 2, xG 1.52vs Strasbourg: actual 2, xG 1.30@ Strasbourg: actual 0, xG 1.43vs 1. FC Union Berlin: actual 1, xG 2.05@ 1. FC Heidenheim: actual 2, xG 1.52Sigma EintraStrasb@Strasb1. FC @1. FC
Goals scoredModel xGAggregate -0.5 goals vs xG (-0.09/game)

How to read this: the solid line is the goals Mainz actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.

> What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.56 xG per match · +0.22 vs league average of 1.34.
Bawler's edge: Goals (Over/Under)
Banker picks in this market land 100% of the time on Mainz fixtures (6/6).
> Form · last 5
Overall: 4W / 0D / 2L · Avg goals 1.5 for, 1.3 against

How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Mainz's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.

Matches Covered
6
6 settled
Avg xG Scored
1.59
per match
Avg xG Conceded
1.56
per match
Banker Hit Rate
100%
6/6 picks
> Bawler's Banker picks on Mainz matches
100%
hit rate over 6 picks

When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Mainz fixture, the model lands 6 out of 6 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

> Recent matches (last 6)

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