Bawler / EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs / Mainz
Team profile

Mainz Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.3
a game
13.0 faced
On target
4.1
a game
4.6 faced
Goals
1.3 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Corners
5.1
a game
4.2 against

Mainz prediction: Bawler's model rates Mainz at 1.59 expected goals scored and 1.56 conceded per match across 6 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 100% of the time. They have won 3 of their last 5 settled matches. No Mainz fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Mainz are vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.56 expected goals a game against a Conference League - Play Offs average of 1.29. Across 6 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Mainz have been correct 100% of the time.

Mainz in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 1.4Away 1.2
5.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.2
Home 6.0Away 4.1
12.3
Shots · per game
faced 13.0
Home 14.0Away 10.7
4.1
On target · per game
faced 4.6
Home 4.3Away 4.0
Last 6 games
16 May
2-0
@ Heidenheim
3-6
16 May
2-0
@ 1. FC Heidenheim
3-6
10 May
1-3
vs Union Berlin
7-8
03 May
2-1
@ St. Pauli
7-7
25 Apr
3-4
vs Bayern Munich
4-4
19 Apr
1-1
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
6-0

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Attack vs defence

How Mainz compare with the EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average, per match.

Goals for
1.59
Above average
Goals against
1.56
Leakier than most
Record
4W 0D 2L
6 settled
Real goals
1.5 – 1.3
For / against, per match
Scored1.59
Conceded1.56

The grey line on each bar is the EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average (1.57 scored, 1.29 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.56 xG per match · +0.28 vs league average of 1.29.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Mainz fixtures (6/6).

How Bawler has done on Mainz

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 6 of 6, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%6/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 6)

More on Mainz and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly