Mainz operate as a balanced attacking unit with a 1.59 xG output offset by defensive vulnerability at 1.56 xG conceded, reflecting a team that creates chances but remains susceptible in transition. Recent form has stabilized after a mid-sequence dip, posting four wins across their last six settled fixtures with a W-L-L-W-W pattern suggesting improved consistency. With no upcoming fixtures in the current window, the model awaits their next Conference League play-off assignment. Bawler's banker selections on Mainz have maintained a perfect 100% strike rate across all tracked matches.
How to read this: the green bar shows the average goals Mainz were expected to score per match (their xG output). The red bar shows what opponents are expected to score against them. The diamond on each bar marks the EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs average — if the bar extends past the diamond, Mainz are above average there.
How to read this: the solid line is the goals Mainz actually scored each match. The dashed line is the goals the model expected them to score (xG). When the solid line is above the dashed, they overperformed — they finished better than the chances they created suggested. When it's below, they underperformed. Persistent underperformance often regresses; a one-off gap usually doesn't.
How to read this: each tile is one settled match, most recent first. Green = win, amber = draw, red = loss. Numbers show the actual scoreline from Mainz's perspective. Tap a tile to see Bawler's full prediction for that match.
When Bawler issues a Banker pick on a Mainz fixture, the model lands 6 out of 6 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.