> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Friday 05 Jun, 02:00 UTC
Mexico vs Serbia
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Mexico's 1X at 78% is the play—they generate 0.31 expected goals more than Serbia and own a 41% win probability at home in a low-scoring affair (2.66 total xG).
Win probability
41.0% home31.7% draw27.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MexicostepSerbia
1.44Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.18
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Mexico 5–1 Serbia
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+