> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Thursday 11 Jun, 19:00 UTC
Mexico vs South Africa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals hits 70% probability as Mexico's 0.79 expected-goals advantage translates to relentless attacking pressure at home.
Win probability
52.6% home29.7% draw17.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MexicostepSouth Africa
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match0.94
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.69Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.90
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
7
3
1
1
13
11
5
2
2
11
10
4
1
3
6
5
2
1
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+