> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: International Friendly·Tuesday 02 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Morocco vs Madagascar
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 72% probability because Morocco's 1.68 xG combined with Madagascar's 1.04 creates a 2.72-goal expected total that favors offensive output.
Win probability
49.2% home29.8% draw21.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
MoroccostepMadagascar
1.63Base xG · rolling 26-match1.05
× 1.03Home advantage · Neutral× 0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.04
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Morocco 4–0 Madagascar
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+